30 / 12 / 2016 | Piaci Hírek

Mystery euro surge lifts other currencies

The euro surged during the Asian trading session, climbing more than two U.S. cents.  This mysterious move baffled traders as there seemed to be no reason for it. The euro jumped from around $1.0490 to briefly trade above US$1.0700 in a matter of moments, its highest level in two weeks. Traders said that the euro's short-lived rally also lifted the U.K. pound and the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

The dollar weakened as the WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against 16 others, fell 0.5% to 93.06.  Despite the overnight fall, the dollar is on track to end 2016 with a gain of more than 3%.

U.K. retail sales are set to flatline in 2017 because of uncertainty caused by Britain's June vote to leave the European Union, according to a study released Thursday. The report from the KPMG-Ipsos Retail Think Tank, or RTT, showed that growth in this area is likely to stagnate during the year as consumers stop spending because of a lack of clarity over the U.K.'s future relationship with the EU. With lower one-off spending offsets any rise in spending on essential goods such as food and groceries, overall retail growth is likely to remain around 0.5%, it said.The weak pound and resulting increases in import costs mean retail prices are likely to rise by between 5% and 8% on average during the year.

After data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed smaller-than-expected growth in U.S. crude stockpiles, crude futures made minor gains overnight.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in Februar  traded at $54.02 a barrel, up 25 cents, or 0.5%, in the Globex electronic session. March LCOH7, +0.53% Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose 33 cents, or 0.6%, to $57.18 a barrel.  Oil trading remained lukewarm before the New Year holiday.  Global oil markets will be closed on Monday.
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29 / 12 / 2016 | Piaci Hírek

Weakened dollar due to disappointing U.S. home sales data

The dollar runs out of steam today as data from the National Association of Realtors showed U.S. pending home sales dropped in November.  This may be a sign that the property market could be slowing down and decreasing excitement that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans would boost economic growth.

The yen strengthened against the dollar and the USD/JPY pair was down from late Wednesday in New York.  This was due to news of weak home-sales data in the U.S. as well as some profit-taking pressure in Japan. 

The euro EURUSD, +0.4321%  was at $1.0458, up from $1.0412 late Wednesday in North America, according to EBS. The British pound GBPUSD, +0.2536%  was at $1.2251, up from $1.2225.

Oil prices fell in Asia after an industry group data showed U.S. crude inventories likely expanded last week, increasing the market’s expectations for lessened growth.  The boom of the U.S. unconventional oil production has been a major threat to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies one-third of the global oil supply. To counter additional supplies coming for the U.S., the cartel members increased production in a bid to protect their market shares.  Analysts say the tactic has largely backfired as OPEC producers are suffering from tighter national budgets thanks to depressed oil prices.
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28 / 12 / 2016 | Technikai Elemzés

EUR/GBP on holding position, USD/JPY struggling to break 118

EUR/GBP still holding between 0.8500 and the 0.8580, which is around the 38% retracement of the rally we saw in the wake of the Brexit referendum. We have limited fundamental data around to provide direction and ongoing political uncertainty is going to weigh on both sides of this cross. In the short term, risk is more focused on the judicial review of Brexit, so further GBP weakness may therefore develop.



USD/CAD has been testing the 50% retracement of the early 2016 sell-off around 1.3575. We have dropped back from this level fractionally, but the prospect of diverging interest rate policies and uncertainty over how trade deal will look once the Trump administration gets underway in earnest later this month suggests that the greenback could retain the upper hand.



Is the Yen’s slump running out of steam? USD/JPY at 120 had been widely mooted, but the pair is struggling to make a sustained break above 118. We’ve had a lot of bad news factored in here, including the US backing out of the Trans Pacific Partnership, so if we can see the green shoots of growth emerging from Japan then there could be room for Yen support, even if the Fed maintains its hawkish stance.

Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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28 / 12 / 2016 | Piaci Hírek

Strength on Wall Street boosts world economy

The dollar continues to rally as overnight, the Nasdaq Composite rose to a new record high of 0.5%.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in on the 20,000-point mark on robust data.  Consumer confidence in the United States climbed to its highest reading since August 2001 of 113.7, according to data released on Tuesday. Market participants anxiously await President-elect Donald’s Trump’s corporate tax cuts and economic stimulus in hopes that it will boost the United States economy.

Strength on Wall Street drove up Australian stocks and the Asian session saw higher shares. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +1.01%   was up 0.9% after a four-day weekend, led by a rally among commodities stocks. Among those, BHP Billiton BHP, +3.29%   gained 3.7%, Rio Tinto RIO, +2.38%   added 2.6% and Fortescue Metals FMG, +3.47%   surged 3.6%. The day’s biggest gainers were stocks from Southeast Asia.  An example was the JSX index JAKIDX, +1.50% in Indonesia up 1.8%.

After the company disclosed that several billions of dollars worth of write downs may be needed to cover costs of construction for its U.S. nuclear reactors, Toshiba Corp. shares sunk 20.4%. 

In Europe, Monte Paschi fell to its lowest closing level since it listed in 1999.  A state rescue of the bank looks inevitable at this point.  Despite the bank’s slide downwards, European bank shares have rallied strongly over the past two weeks.  This was helped by expectations of easing regulatory pressure and rising bond yields.
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27 / 12 / 2016 | Piaci Hírek

Dollar rises as markets anticipate Trump's plans

The dollar is in focus today as it gains strength in anticipation of Trump’s economic plans. Market participants are waiting for the President elect’s comments on the dollar’s recent ascent.  If there are comments from Donald Trump expressing concern for the dollar’s rise, this could trigger a selloff.  However, this prospect does not seem imminent.

A government bailout of Italy’s Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is in play for a 20 million Euro aid package.

Trading in the Asian session today was mixed and in smaller volumes as some trading resumed after the Christmas holidays.  Markets in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong were closed.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average NIK, +0.03 fluctuated as the yen weakened against the US dollar.

Data released today revealed that China’s industrial sector profits grew 14.5% in November from a year ago.  This shows that Beijing could reach its annual economic growth target.   According to He Ping, an economist, the acceleration of industrial production and sales growth and a surge in factory-gate prices are the main drivers of the rosy figure.

According to data released today, the core Japanese consumer price index fell 0.4% from a year earlier in November, after decreasing at the same rate in the previous month.  This figure is reflective of the continued fragile state of the economy.

Oil prices remain steady overnight as investors wait for production cuts to take place.  Beginning in January, most members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 other non-cartel producers will scale back their production.  An expected reduction of 1.8 million barrels will be carried out in phases.  Analysts believe that oil prices will breach the $60-a-barrel threshold in the first half of 2017.
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23 / 12 / 2016 | Technikai Elemzés

Established rallies risk running out of steam

EUR/JPY is maintaining the up-trend, although with a lack of momentum being seen on either currency, this could break out on the downside as the pair risks a period of sideways trading over the next few days. Resistance remains likely around the 1.2500 level.



The trend higher for USD/CAD is stalling and although we have key economic releases to account for here, 1.3500 is acting as resistance. A quick break through this seems unlikely but would pave the way for 1.3585.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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23 / 12 / 2016 | Piaci Hírek

Sterling a notable faller as year draws to a close

Cable is again finding itself in focus this morning with the pair languishing around seven month lows. We have seen a modest rebound but as it stands GBP/USD is still below 1.2300 and this morning’s final Q3 GDP print will be under scrutiny to see if there’s anything worth cheering here. On the basis that many had expected to see a dollar pull back towards the year-end, a move that would be driven by short-term profit taking, the potential here could be weighted on the upside, especially if we see a print that’s at least in line with the forecast 2.3%.
 
EUR/USD is holding fast around the 1.04 level with the ECB’s promises of inflation in yesterday’s bulletin serving to bolster support for the common currency, despite the plethora of political risk that still faces the trading union in the New Year. There’s very little in the way of economic data out of the Eurozone today – German consumer confidence forecasts for January have come in as expected, so again the potential here may be on the upside if we see greenback profit taking going into the Christmas break.
 
Japanese markets are closed today, again helping keen a lid on any further Yen volatility and the slide lower for USD/JPY does appear to have been put on hold - at least for now. The key triggers here look to be longer term – Donald Trumps first moves in office will be under scrutiny, whilst the next FOMC meeting at the very end of January will also be key, to see if the hawkish tone is maintained. The fundamentals suggest that further weakness here is due, but the unwinding since the election has been rapid and a pause for breath is understandable. 
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22 / 12 / 2016 | Technikai Elemzés

Euro holds potential against AUD, GBP

EUR/AUD has been trading in a very tight range for the fourth quarter, but is now threatening a breakout on the upside. Look for resistance around 1.4500, with a successful test here paving the way for 1.4750.



EUR/GBP has lost its hold on the 50% retracement of the post-Brexit move. Next levels to watch are resistance at 0.8500 and then the 38% retracement around 0.8560.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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22 / 12 / 2016 | Piaci Hírek

Pound reeling after government borrowing jump

Sterling has been in focus over the last 24 hours with a larger than expected public sector borrowing figure serving to knock the pound. EUR/GBP is trading higher whilst GBP/USD is lower, emphasising that at least this time round this story isn’t just about dollar strength. With the updated Q3 UK GDP release due at 9.30am GMT tomorrow this could provide some further direction ahead of the Christmas break, but it’s clear that the market is still ready to bid the pound lower even from these depressed levels - any signs of weakness will be jumped upon. 
 
EUR/USD has regained the 1.04 handle, despite further acknowledgement yesterday by the Latvian Central Bank Governor that the EU’s money printing exercise has failed to deliver any substantial boost to growth. We have the ECB economic bulletin due for release at 9am GMT this morning which could provide some direction in the short term, but the common currency isn’t looking as susceptible as it had been earlier in the week.
 
The overall bearish outlook is being maintained for AUD/USD although fundamental drivers for the Aussie dollar are looking thin on the ground. This could result in something of a reversion in the near term, especially if traders are looking to book some profits ahead of the year end, but with a view into 2017, further downside pressure is to be expected on the pair, especially if the hawkish tone is maintained by the Federal Reserve while recessionary fears bubble away in Australia.
 
US durable goods orders will constitute the big economic release today at 1.30pm GMT. The market is braced for a downturn here and the greenback looks generally resilient given the longer term hawkish stance the Fed is currently adopting. Potential may therefore be more on the upside if the print doesn’t come in looking quite as depressed as forecast.
 
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20 / 12 / 2016 | Technikai Elemzés

Cable testing downside support

GBP/USD is finding little worth cheering right now and the pound is sliding back to recent lows. Look for interim support at 1.2360 then 1.2310.



The descending triangle for USD/ZAR remains in tact, but is being threatened on the upside by dollar strength. Upside breakout still unlikely.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
 
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