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Fundamental Analysis 19.03.2018 – Market Outlook

Market Recap

News that iron ore inventories in China are continuing to climb sent the price of the ore lower on Monday 19th of March 2018, pushing AUD down. Shipments to China are falling as importers try to trim excessive inventories. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that speculators have now switched to going short AUD (see table below). Fears about the global trading environment could weigh on AUD and the other commodity currencies if the G20 meeting today and tomorrow fail to make any headway pushing back against the US (see below).

On the other hand, JPY gained because of the deepening scandal surrounding Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and a suspicious land transaction that he seems to be involved in. It may seem counter-intuitive for a currency to gain on such news, but Tokyo stocks are falling on fears that PM Abe may not get re-elected in September 2018 and his reforms, such as they are, could be at risk. USD/JPY often moves in tandem with the Japanese stock market becaue of risk aversion.

Commitment of Traders (COT) report:  

The COT report showed that investors went short AUD and NZD. They also increased their short USD position while increasing their long EUR position. Furthermore, they increased their short JPY position. 

Today’s market

No indicators on the schedule at all today.

The main thing on the agenda today is the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bankers in Buenos Aires. 

At their last meeting a year ago, this group had this to say about FX:
"We reiterate that excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will consult closely on exchange markets. We reaffirm our previous exchange rate commitments, including that we will refrain from competitive devaluations and we will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes. We will carefully calibrate and clearly communicate our macroeconomic and structural policy actions to reduce policy uncertainty, minimise negative spillovers and promote transparency."

 FX just isn’t a big concern for them so no important statements are expected. The European Central Bank (ECB) sometimes mentions the strength of the euro. The yen is rising. China has allowed CNY to appreciate over the past year. 

The summit may take steps that will provide justification for countries that want to take steps to rein in cryptocurrencies. There will be discussions on both days about cryptocurrencies, which authorities believe are used in money laundering, drug sales, etc. 

Over the weekend, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney wrote a letter to the group in his position as chairman of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) warning that cryptocurrencies could “pose financial stability risks through confidence effects.”

This is what the group said about cryptocurrencies last year, albeit in vague terms. Basically, they suggested that countries “closely monitor developments.” 

The minutes of the recent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting could reinforce the dovish view that emerged from that meeting. Since the 6 March 2018 meeting, the odds of a rate hike this year have diminished, although much of that change has been in the days following the meeting rather than immediately afterwards. The forward guidance at the meeting was little changed from the previous meeting, so no changes are expected.

The Fundamental Analysis are provided by Marshall Gittler, an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
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