23 / 11 / 2017 | Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis 23.11.2017 - EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (131.160). The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (132.162).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument has entered the cloud. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (130.950). The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (132.393).



This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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23 / 11 / 2017 | Market News

Fundamental Analysis 23.11.2017 - Market Outlook

The dollar plunged after the Federal Open Market Committee minutes showed more Committee members concerned about the low level of inflation. As I pointed out yesterday, the minutes of the September 2017 meeting showed that “some participants” were worried that there might be a new secular trend of low inflation. This time, “…many participants observed that there was some likelihood that inflation might remain below 2 percent for longer than they currently expected…” Furthermore, “many participants” observed that “continued low readings on inflation, which had occurred even as the labor market tightened, might reflect not only transitory factors, but also the influence of developments that could prove more persistent.” Meanwhile, “some other participants were concerned about upside risks to inflation…”.

In short, more participants than ever are questioning the Fed’s long-term inflation forecast, and it looks like the members with doubts are starting to outweigh the hawks.

A December 2017 rate hike is still on the cards, but when the Committee members revise their rate forecasts next month, we could see a revision to the 2018 and 2019 forecasts. Accordingly, the implied rates on Fed funds futures dropped sharply, cutting the expected future rates by about 6 bps or one quarter of a rate hike.

JPY was the main beneficiary of USD weakness, probably because USD/JPY is the most sensitive pair to US rate forecasts. With the Bank of Japan pegging JPY yields, the US-Japan yields spread is 100% a function of US, unlike other countries, whose bond yields can be pulled by the “gravitational attraction” of US yields.

It appears to me that the new Fed Chair, Jay Powell, is not likely to be more hawkish than Janet Yellen has been. Furthermore, we still haven’t heard the last from Special Counsel Robert Mueller. In short, both the monetary and political reasons to buy USD are evaporating. That could spell long-term trouble for the currency.

CAD gained on higher oil prices after Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it may invite 20 non-members to its 30 November 2017 meeting to discuss an extension of their agreement to curb output. The fact that the North American Free Trade Agreement negotiators said “progress was made” in the negotiations has also changed the outlook for CAD a bit, although note that no specifics were given on what that progress was. 

Today is the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US, meaning all US markets will be shut. It was also Labor Thanksgiving Day in Japan. With the Japanese and US markets on holiday, we can expect relatively thin trading today. That could mean a quiet market, or it could mean more volatile moves if something big happens.

As I mentioned yesterday, the German GDP figures, which boosted the euro when the initial estimate came out, are rarely revised – today’s data is more about revealing the components of GDP rather than revising the overall figure.

Next up are the preliminary purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for the major EU economies  – one of the key indicators of the week. The manufacturing PMIs are forecast to be slightly lower, which probably won’t be a concern, given their relatively high levels to start with. They still indicate a robust expansion is continuing.

Also note that the EU services PMI, the purple line below, is forecast to rise slightly. That’s enough to keep the composite EU PMI unchanged. (Markit doesn’t reveal the details, but I estimate that the composite PMI is comprised of 33% manufacturing and 67% services.) I would say then that the figures should be EUR-neutral to positive. 




Britain announces the second estimate of its 3rd quarter GDP. The market usually doesn’t forecast a revision, so the forecast in today’s table is simply the provisional figure again. As you can see from the graph, it’s unusual for the second estimate to be revised.


 

The European Central Bank releases the “account” of its 26 October 2017 Governing Council meeting. This should make for interesting reading. Following the meeting, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi admitted that the decision with regards to the size and the duration of the bond-purchasing plan – to cut the size but set no definite ending date – wasn’t unanimous. “There were different viewpoints,” he said. “I would characterise the discussion as ranging between consensus, broad consensus on several issues and large majority on other issues.” He said a “large majority” preferred to keep the program open-ended, but that there wasn’t “consensus” on this key point. Since then, we’ve heard from several Council members who’ve said they would’ve preferred a definite ending date. I look forward to getting more insight into this debate.

Canada’s retail sales are expected to improve, even considering that the previous month was a decline. The market usually focuses on the figure excluding autos, which is forecast to be well above trend – a good sign. This is one of the more significant indicators for CAD and so I would say this figure is likely to be CAD-positive.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Thomas Jordan will speak at the University of Basel on the consequences of Switzerland’s high current account surplus for the SNB’s monetary policy. This should be interesting, if not market moving.

The Swiss current account surplus is certainly one of the Seven Wonders of the Financial World. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the country’s currency is about 19% overvalued vs USD and 30% vs EUR, yet the current account surplus for this year is estimated at an enormous 11.25% of GDP.  How can a country whose currency is so grossly overvalued still have such a huge current account surplus? I look forward to finding out.

Switzerland certainly shows that a weak currency is not always necessary to gain an advantage in trade, although it’s not certain that what works for a small economy (8.4mn people) would work for a larger one.  



Speaking of trade, New Zealand releases its trade data on the morning of Friday 23rd November 2017 (local time). The figures aren’t seasonally adjusted, so I think it’s more useful to look at the 12-month moving average than this one month’s figure. The consensus forecast for the trade deficit would still keep the 12-month moving average on a gentle upward slope, showing an improving trade picture. That should be positive for NZD. 



This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
 


 

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22 / 11 / 2017 | Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis 22.11.2017 - CAD/CHF: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (0.77547). The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (0.77602).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading around lower border of the cloud. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (0.77431). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (0.77822).



This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
 
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22 / 11 / 2017 | Market News

Fundamental Analysis 22.11.2017 - Market Outlook

It’s another down day for the dollar. The extremely flat US yield curve – flattest it’s been since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis – has been keeping the dollar from rallying. Does the flattening yield curve signify market fears of a recession? Or does it simply indicate that the market has confidence in the Fed and believes that it’s likely to continue to raise rates, which should keep inflation under control going forward?



There’s been no big change in inflation expectations over the last several weeks, which leads me to think that it’s the latter – confidence in the Fed. 



That’s also the signal from the Fed funds futures. The implied rate forecasts from the Fed funds futures have gradually been moving higher, implying that the market is starting to believe the Fed’s own rate forecasts more. 

Given that the flattening yield curve is a vote of confidence in the Fed and not a signal of impending recession, I think it should be a reason for the dollar to rally, not weaken.

However, the market seems to be focusing on yield differentials. That’s the only explanation I can see for why USD/JPY should have moved lower when the market is seeing a revival in risk sentiment. The correlation between USD/JPY and Tokyo stocks is near the highest it’s been in over 20 years, and yet with stock markets all around the world rallying, USD/JPY fell.

CAD was the biggest winner despite a stunningly badfigure for wholesale trade sales – down 1.2% mom instead of up 0.6% as expected (previous: +0.4%).  The Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister said there had been “good progress”. Mexico made a proposal that the US was bound to reject in response to an unacceptable US proposal. Apparently there was some progress in lower-level issues in the NAFTA talks, although the main obstacles remain.

Today’s market

A big day in Europe and in the US today. In Europe, the focus will be on UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond’s Autumn Statement to Parliament. This is the budget for FY2018, which will include revised economic forecasts for growth and the fiscal deficit.

This is the first budget after the snap election in June 2017. Forecasts for growth are likely to be revised down, which means that the forecasts for the deficit should widen. The fiscal situation will therefore be quite tight already. Furthermore, the Conservative Party maintains a narrow majority in Parliament only with the help of a small party from Northern Ireland, and that party has agreed only to support the government on legislation pertaining to Brexit and national security.

On the contrary, there has been considerable clamor in Britain for an “end to austerity.” One might argue that the central government is running an austerity program, since current receipts now exceed current expenditures, as the lines in the graph below show. But overall the public sector is still running a deficit (green section) so it shouldn’t be said to be imposing “austerity” – it’s more accurate to call it “less profligacy.” (Note that public sector net borrowing, the green area, is not just the difference between revenues and spending and thus doesn’t correspond exactly to the difference between the two lines).


 

The problem for UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond will be to keep the borrowing on the downtrend that the Conservatives have promised, while at the same time increasing spending – and all with revenues forecast to fall.

The budget has many macro- and micro-economic effects that will be discussed at length in the press afterwards and should, over the longer term, affect  the pound. The immediate question for the FX market though is simple:  whether the budget helps or hurts the government’s already low popularity. If it’s poorly received, it could add to the problems that the Conservatives are already facing. That would tend to embolden the rebels in the party and make a revolt more likely, which would be negative for the pound. On the other hand, if it’s well received, it could shore up Prime Minister Theresa May’s popularity and give her a stronger hand in negotiating Brexit with her own party as much as with the EU. Which will it be? We’ll have to wait and see.

In the US, the big indicator of the day is the durable goods figure. The headline figure is expected to show much less of a rise than in the previous month, because of a fall in airplane orders. Also, after three months of relatively strong growth, the key figure for core capital goods orders (specifically, “capital goods new orders non-defense ex aircraft and parts”) is also expected to be lower – but still positive. Often after a few months of growth we get a negative month, so I would rate these figures – not great, but still positive - fairly good in context and therefore judge them to be mildly positive for the dollar.



Next is the EU consumer confidence figure. Consumer confidence has been rising steadily on the back of relatively strong growth and falling unemployment rates (plus no major debt crises). The figure is expected to rise further, which could be slightly EUR-positive.



The US Department of Energy’s weekly crude oil inventory figures are expected to show a decent drawdown. But that’s already in the price after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an enormous drawdown. The API figures have shown wild fluctuations; up 6.5mn barrels last week, down 6.4mn barrels this week.


 

The minutes of the November 2017 FOMC meeting will be closely scrutinized as usual. It’s assumed that they will raise rates in December 2017. There were very few changes in the statement following the meeting from the statement following the September 2017 meeting, which implies that there were few changes in views, either.

One of the main points of contention within the FOMC is about whether wages will pick up and drive an increase in inflation. The minutes of the September 2017 meeting said that “(m)ost participants” expect wage increases to pick up as the labor market strengthens, while “a couple of participants” thought this was already starting to happen. Since then, wage growth slowed down (see graph).

There is also the crucial question of whether low inflation is temporary or a new trend due to changes in the economy. As the first graph below shows, since the Global Financial Crisis ended, lower unemployment has been associated with lower inflation, the exact opposite of what economic theory suggests. But the second graph suggests that this trend may have reversed from 2015 and that the textbooks may be right after all. Where do the Committee members stand on this debate?

While “many participants” continue to expect the tightening labor market to lead to higher inflation and “many” thought the undershoot in inflation was due to one-off factors, “(s)ome participants discussed the possibility that secular trends, such as the influence of technological innovations on competition and business pricing, also might have been muting inflationary pressures and could be intensifying.” This is another key debate that investors will be monitoring through the minutes. The more the Committee members think low inflation is a result of secular trends, the less likely they are to push for higher rates. 





Early morning on Thursday 23rd November 2017 in Europe, the final estimate of German GDP will be announced. But since it’s almost never revised, that will be more of interest for the details of the figure than for anything market-moving. 

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
 
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21 / 11 / 2017 | Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis 21.11.2017 - EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are directed downwards. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (131.785). The closest resistance level is the upper border of the cloud (132.545).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is approaching the price chart from below, current cloud is ascending. The instrument has entered the cloud. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (130.899). The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (132.522).



This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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21 / 11 / 2017 | Market News

Fundamental Analysis 21.11.2017 - Market Outlook

The risk-off tone didn’t last long. Global equity markets were up almost across the board.

The market was calmed by the fact that Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel made it clear that she intends to serve her fourth term and will hold new elections in order to gain a majority rather than trying to run the country with a minority government. While this would be unusual for Germany, and might not solve anything if the voters return the same parties with the same seats, it could result in a stronger government. Or, some of the other parties could get worried about losing support and become more willing to compromise in order to fend off another election.

In any event, the German economy is in good shape and there are no acute domestic crises that need to be taken care of urgently. The same goes for Europe as a whole, where growth is recovering, unemployment is falling and the semi-annual debt or banking crises of the past few years are now just a memory. Thus the uncertainty in Germany is now less of a crisis for the region than it would have been say back in 2011, when it appeared that Greece might go bankrupt and urgent decisions had to be taken.

GBP was the surprise gainer of the day reports that Britain is preparing to double its offer for the financial settlement to €38bn. This is still below EU demands for €60bn though and it remains to be seen whether the EU will be willing to split the difference between their respective initial positions. Moreover, the Press Association reported that no exact figure has yet been set, and Britain would only be willing to pay the additional money – which is still less than what the EU wants – in exchange for further concessions from the EU. So it’s not a done deal yet by any means.

AUD weakened after the minutes from the recent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting indicated that the RBA may keep rates low for longer than expected.

Today’s market

The European day starts out with the UK government borrowing data. This figure will form the backdrop of Thursday 23rd November 2017’s budget announcement and so will have some political importance. The figures are not seasonally adjusted, while revenues are quite seasonal, so looking at the forecast for the month is not that illuminating. I’ve calculated what the 12-month moving average would be if the figure does come in as forecast – I think that’s a more informative way of looking at it. It would show a small further fall in borrowing – i.e., a further narrowing of the deficit – which would tend to be positive for the pound. The fall in the borrowing from an average of £4.52bn a month in January 2017 to £3.56bn a month now, if the forecast is correct, could give Chancellor Philip Hammond some wiggle room in his budget.



The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) trends survey isn’t a major market-mover, but I include it here as people are struggling to make sense of the UK economy nowadays. The diffusion index for total orders is expected to shift into the positive, that is, more manufacturers are expected to say that order books are above normal than below normal – a good sign. No forecast available for the “selling prices” DI, which is arguably the more important of the two as an indicator of inflation.

US existing home sales are expected to increase only somewhat. The National Association of Realtors has said that rising prices and a lack of available inventory, especially at the lower end of the housing market, is restraining sales. That’s what rising prices would indicate too – demand outweighing supply. The figure should be supportive for the dollar because it suggests rising mortgage rates are not likely to derail the housing market. 

In contrast, new home sales (due out on 27 November 2017) are forecast to fall sharply, but that comes after a surge in the previous month. 

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will appear in conversation with former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King. Normally this would be the highlight of the day, but people want to hear what Jay Powell, the incoming Fed Chair, has to say, particularly as rumors swirl that some staff members at the Fed are agitating to change the inflation target in order to give the FOMC more leeway to adjust rates if the economy tanks again. Moreover, the one thing I was interested in finding out from her was whether she was planning on staying on after her term as Chair ends in February 2018, and she answered that question yesterday:  no. So I would expect to hear some reflective comments evaluating her time in office, but not that much on the future course of monetary policy.

At some point during the day, the fifth round of NAFTA talks will end in Mexico City. According to press reports, this round of talks largely avoided the most controversial US proposals and has produced no substantial breakthroughs. Mostly, junior negotiators have worked on updating the small details in the agreement.

The graph below shows the 12-month moving sum of the US trade position with the two countries since the NAFTA accord took effect from January 1994. The narrowing of the US trade gap with Canada since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, due largely to a sharp drop in US imports from Canada, suggests that the US is probably focused on trade with Mexico, but the US proposals would hit both countries. 



A particular concern for both countries this time has been US proposals to increase the amount of US content necessary for cars, a large export category for both countries. Autos account for 16% of exports from Canada and an even higher 25% for Mexico, far more than petroleum (5.4%) despite MXN’s status as a petro-currency. Energy makes up an even higher 18% of Canada’s exports, which includes electricity.

Canada and Mexico have refused to make counter-offers to some of the main US proposals, such as the car content rules and dispute settlement. Canada has simply stated publicly that the US proposals are unacceptable and has refused to present any alternatives.

The three countries have extended the deadline for the talks to March 2018. On the one hand, that gives them more time to reach an agreement and more time for US businesses to lobby  US President Donald Trump's administration to relax their demands. On the other hand, by that time the talks may be complicated by a general election to be held in July 2018 in Mexico and the US mid-term elections in November 2018. The elections may make it harder for politicians on both sides to compromise. 

There will be a partial round of talks in December in Washington, and then the next full round of talks is scheduled to take place in Montreal late January 2018.

Overnight, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index will be announced. No forecast is available, but the indicator does occasionally prove market-affecting. As the graph shows, the index has been fairly stable over recent months, so a sharp move in either direction would be significant for the market.

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.

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20 / 11 / 2017 | Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis 20.11.2017 - AUD/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are directed downwards. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (84.001). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (85.146).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are directed downwards. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (83.950). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (86.111).



This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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20 / 11 / 2017 | Market News

Fundamental Analysis 20.11.2017 - Market Outlook

The focus this morning has been on European politics. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been trying ever since the election on 24th September 2017 to form a coalition government, but the long-running coalition talks in Germany collapsed shortly before midnight local time on Sunday 19th November 2017 as one of the parties pulled out, saying its differences with one of the other parties were too great to bridge. The country may have to hold new elections again, but polls show that another round of elections would be likely to produce approximately the same result.

The news throws into question Angela Merkel’s future as Chancellor. While she will remain as Chancellor, the form of the next government is now uncertain. This casts a huge shadow of uncertainty over all Europe. Decisions on everything from Brexit to sanctions on Russia will be more difficult and harder to predict.

As usual, uncertainty is bad for a currency and EUR has fallen sharply. At the same time, the uncertainty sparked a general “risk off” mood that sent safe haven assets sharply higher. CHF and JPY rose sharply, with CHF for once moving more than JPY on a “risk off” move, probably because this time the source of the risk is Europe, not North Korea.  Gold and silver were also up sharply. Even GBP gained a bit, presumeably on people cutting long EUR/GBP positions.

The risk-off mood may continue for some time, since this problem is not likely to be resolved any time soon. CHF strength in particular and JPY strength too may continue and of course EUR weakness, but I don’t think this is likely to remain positive for GBP. On the contrary, Angela Merkel has been working on the Brexit negotiations to arrange a compromise between the EU and the UK. The uncertainty around Angela Merkel's coalition government may make it harder to corral all the EU members into reacing an agreement with Britain. I think these problems could be GBP-negative as well as EUR-negative. The difference may be that negative views on GBP are now more likely to be played out in GBP/USD rather than EUR/GBP.

Note that the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report out on Friday 17th November 2017 showed an extremely bullish position in EUR and extremely bearish positions in JPY and CHF. As of Tuesday 14th November 2017, speculators held almost the biggest long position in EUR and did hold the biggest short positions in JPY and CHF that they’ve held in the last five years. On the other hand, although substantially long gold and silver, they are still within the normal range of positioning in those two assets, which helps explain why positioning was no obstacle to them rallying further on the news.

Of course, positioning doesn’t always determine direction. Even though positioning in WTI is at an extreme too – the biggest long position in the past five years – that didn’t prevent WTI from jumping about 2.5% from Friday 17th November 2017 morning’s level after Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said OPEC should extend its supply cuts when it meets on 30th November 2017.

There have also been additional developments in the US. There were press reports this morning that Robert Mueller has directed the US Justice Department to turn over documents related to the firing of FBI Director James Comey, including any communications between the Justice Department and the White House. The document request suggests that Robert Mueller is progressing rapidly. Any new developments here still have the potential to disrupt the thin holiday market.
 

Today’s market

A relatively quiet start to a relatively quiet week. There are no major indicators out from either Europe or the US.

The major point of interest today will be the meeting of EU Ministers of Foreign and European Affairs in Brussels. They’ll be starting their preparations for the 14th-15th December 2017 European Council summit meeting, a crucial meeting that will decide whether to allow the EU and UK to move to the next stage in the Brexit negotiations and start working on a long-term trade deal. European Council President Donald Tusk said on Froday 17th November 2017 that Britain must deliver "much more progress" on the Brexit divorce bill and the Irish border by the beginning of December 2017, otherwise he would not be able to recommend moving on to that stage. Tusk will meet again with UK Prime Minister Theresa May on Friday 24th November 2017 to discuss the issues. The two sides are still quite far away and I do not expect much progress, which is likely to be negative for the pound this week.

ECB President Mario Draghi appears twice at the Committee for Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) at the European Parliament today. At 1400 GMT he will appear in his capacity as ECB President, and then at 1600 GMT he will appear in his capacity as the Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), the body responsible for regulating the European financial system.

The US leading index is a second-tier indicator in that it’s comprised of indicators that are already out, so really it contains no new information. Nonetheless it does sometimes move the market. It could do so today. The consensus forecast, +0.7% mom, would be the highest since December 2014. Of course, the 2014 figure came after a positive month whereas this figure comes the month after activity was hit by the hurricanes, but in any event this reminder of the robust bounce-back from the hurricanes could prove positive for the dollar. 



Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes of its 7th November 2017 rate-setting meeting. The statement wasn’t much changed – the forward guidance and the section on AUD were exactly the same as in October 2017-- and furthermore, the Statement on Monetary Policy was released a few days later.

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.

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20 / 11 / 2017 | Market Outlook

Marshall Gittler's Market Outlook 20.11.2017-24.11.2017

Themes of the week: Brexit, US Tax Bill, Oil prices, Robert Mueller's investigation, NAFTA talks


 
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17 / 11 / 2017 | Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis 17.11.2017 - EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. The closest support level is the upper border of the cloud (133.00). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (133.14).



Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is approaching the price chart from above, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Kijun-sen line (132.91). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (133.33).



This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.

 
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