16 / 06 / 2016 | Technical Analysis

GBP/CAD: Today’s Major Levels 1.8301 and 1.8402

North American Session
The GBP/CAD pair has been trending upwards since Monday, the 13th of June, with the price rising from 1.8031 up to 1.8420.  

During the European Session, the pair advanced from 1.8302 up to 1.8415. In the event that the price breaks above 1.8417, the pair could climb higher and reach the 1.8499 level.

Conversely, in the scenario where the sellers manage to put pressures and the price break below 1.8267, the pair could find support at 1.8220 and 1.8176 respectively.


Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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16 / 06 / 2016 | Market News

Dollar drops versus yen after BOJ holds off from easing

On Thursday, after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady, the yen advance more than 2% to 20-month highs against the dollar, ahead of a U.K. referendum on European Union membership next week that could roil markets.

USD/JPY felt 2.13% to 103.75, the lowest level since August 2014 after Bank of Japan left monetary policy remained on hold at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Thursday.

The BOJ board voted to continue expanding the monetary base at an annual rate of about ¥80 billion. The BoJ officials also flagged the EU referendum on June 23 as a key geopolitical threat to the Japanese economy, along with the “European debt problem”. This decision was a result of the fact that the Federal Reserve also cited the referendum as a factor in its decision on Wednesday to keep interest rates on hold.

The dollar had already weakened against the other major currencies after the Fed kept rates unchanged and lowered forecast for how much they expect to hike interest rates in the next few years.

The dollar was little changed against the single currency, with EUR/USD at 1.1263.

The euro was precipitously lower against stronger yen, with EUR/JPY down 1.99% at 116.99, the weakest level since January 2013.

The pound was also lower ahead of the Bank of England’s latest interest rate announcement later on Thursday. Expectations remain low for changes to monetary policy. However the meeting minutes could contain a fresh warning about the risks posed by next week’s referendum.

The sterling pound dropped against the greenback, with GBP/USD down 0.36% at 1.4153, while EUR/GBP advanced 0.44% at 0.7960. Sterling tumbled more than 2% against the Japanese yen, with GBP/JPY dropping 2.35% to 147.09, the lowest level since April 2013.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.23% at 94.45.
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16 / 06 / 2016 | Technical Analysis

EUR/USD: Trading at 1.1271, EZ CPI eyed

European Session
The EUR/USD pair has been trending upwards since Tuesday, the 14th of June 2016, with the bulls leading the price from as low as 1.1189 to as high as 1.1295.
 
With the opening of the trading session, the pair traded between the levels of 1.1258 and 1.1295, with the price currently trading at 1.1271.
 
In the event that the buyers keep trading higher with the currency price breaking above 1.1302, profit targets could be set at 1.1329 and 1.1360 respectively.
 
On the flip side, in the scenario where the sellers manage to force the price lower and drop below 1.1254, the price could reach 1.1229 and 1.1213 in extension.  
 
Later in the session, the focus will remain on the BO J presser, followed by SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and Eurozone CPI figures thereafter.
 
Market watchers will be also monitoring US inflation readings will be also closely eyed.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
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15 / 06 / 2016 | Technical Analysis

GBP/USD: Rising to 1.4215 on strong labour market data

North American Session
The GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards since the 7th of June 2016, with the bearish pressure leading the price from as high as 1.4659 to as low as 1.4092, amid escalating Brexit worries.

The major fell during the course of the day on Tuesday, reaching the daily low of 1.4092, its weakest level since mid-April.  Today, the pair recovered from its losses, rising up to the session high of 1.4215. At the beginning of the North American session, the pair trades at 1.4189. The sterling found support from upbeat U.K. labour market data, particularly from a strong average earnings growth report that is considered to be a measure of inflationary pressure.

Later in the session, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision, along with the bank’s economic, inflation and interest rate forecast for the next two years and would be followed by a conference held by Janet Yellen. Market watchers will be also monitoring BoE’s monetary policy decision tomorrow morning.

On a subsequent break above 1.4222, the pair could rise up to 1.4308 and 1.4373 in extension.

On the downside, in the scenario where the price breaks below 1.4092, the pair might continue to reach 1.4013 and 1.3965 respectively.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
 
 
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14 / 06 / 2016 | Market News

Sterling under pressure, while yen rises on escalating Brexit fears

The sterling remained vulnerable near a two-month low against the greenback on Tuesday, while the yen hovered near six-week highs on mounting worries that Britain may leave the E.U
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While many market participants are skeptical about the outcome, recent opinion polls have indicated a lead for the ‘leave’ supporters, making investors nervous. As a result, the British pound dropped 0.7% to 1.4161, reaching a two-month low of 1.4117 on Monday.

As investors are preparing for a dive in the British pound, implied volatilities have surged, with one-month volatility posting a record level around 28% this week.

The cable fell 1.2% to 149.85 against the yen, as the yen tends to rise at times of reduced risk appetite. The yen is the strongest among G10 currencies so far in June and traded at 105.83 against the greenback, still close to Monday’s six-week peak of 105.73.

The Japanese Finance Minister warned against renewed appreciation of the yen on Tuesday, stating that he would ‘firmly respond’ if extreme moves continued in the currency markets. The risk of yen-selling intervention by Japan is lending support to the greenback against the yen.

The Bank of Japan's upcoming policy meeting on Thursday and Friday will drive the yen. Analysts expect that the Japanese central bank will hold off from any employing additional monetary easing measures.

The Bank of Japan will probably not take any actions, as the impact of any monetary easing at this point could be limiting while investors are preoccupied with the British referendum.

The Japanese yen hovered near a three-month high against the single currency, which slid 0.5% to 119.39. On Monday, the euro had reached a low of 119.005, the lowest level since February 2013.

The euro fell 0.1% to 1.1279 against the greenback, pulling away from Monday’s low of 1.1233.  

The euro is also fragile to a Brexit risk that could injure the eurozone economy and seriously hurt European integration.  At the same time, the euro could find support from safe-haven sentiment as the currency is used as a funding currency for trades in riskier assets.

Disappointing U.S. employment data released earlier this month affected expectations of a June/July rate hike by the Fed, lending support to the euro and other currencies against the greenback.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is holding a two-day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with market watchers waiting for new signals about the timing of the next rate hike by the Fed.
 
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14 / 06 / 2016 | Technical Analysis

NZD/USD: Oscillating around 0.7034 on global risk-off sentiment

European Session
The NZD/USD pair has been trading downwards since the 9th of June 2016, with the sellers driving the price from as high as 0.7145 to as low as 0.7022.

The pair went back and forth on Monday, reaching the daily high of 0.7080 and low of 0.7030 to end the day at 0.7056. Today, the major continued to oscillate, currently trading at 0.7034.

With several central bank monetary policy decisions this week, investors are jittery are shifting away from riskier asset classes such as stocks and commodities, driving commodity currencies like the New Zealand dollar lower.

Going forward, market watchers will turn their focus to the release of U.K. inflation data and U.S. retail sales that could drive risk sentiment.

In the event that the price breaks above 0.7053, the pair could reach 0.7085 and 0.7145 in extension.

Alternatively, on a subsequent break below 0.7022, the pair could find support at 0.6996 and 0.6964 respectively.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
 
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13 / 06 / 2016 | Technical Analysis

GBP/USD: Bounces off to 1.4170, but bearish bias remains strong

North American Session
The GBP/USD pair has been moving on a downward trajectory since the 7th of May 2016, with the bears pushing the price from as high as 1.4658 to as low as 1.4113.

The major fell sharply during the course of the day on Friday, reaching the intraday low of 1.4182. Today, the pair extended its losses down to 1.4113, but subsequently recovered, currently trading at 1.4170.

The sterling continues to be driven by the outcome of several polls on the British referendum, with the latest poll revealing lead for the ‘leave’ supporters, driving the GBP/USD pair down for the fourth straight day.

Investors will be also monitoring the FOMC policy meeting outcome on Wednesday, which could further affect the risk sentiment in the near-term.

In the event that the price breaks below the session low of 1.4113, the pair could go down to 1.4067 and 1.4000 respectively.

Alternatively, in the scenario where the price breaks above 1.4242, the pair could go up to 1.4323 and 1.4384 in extension.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
 
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13 / 06 / 2016 | Market News

Dollar ended the week higher against its counterparts

The U.S. dollar finished the week strongly higher against its other major counterparts on Friday, regardless of lower expectations of a near-term interest rate hike by the U.S. central bank.
 
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against a group of six other currencies, rose 0.65% on Friday, with the index ending the week gaining 0.56%.
 
Investors have lowered the expectations on the timing of the next interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, after the disappointing May report, which indicated that the economy added only 38,000 jobs last month, marking the smallest rise since September 2010.

The CME Group indicated on Friday that there is a 1.9% probability that the FOMC will hike rates in June. The chance of at least one rate hike in 2016 is at 58.8%.

Janet Yellen said at a speech on Monday that interest rates won’t rise until uncertainty over the economic growth is settled. The Fed Chair argued that she expects the economic recovery to gain traction, but gave no clues on the timing of the next rate hike.
 
The euro ended the day losing 0.57% at 1.1250 against the dollar, bringing the week’s losses to 1.02%.  
 
The yen fell 0.10% at 106.98 against the greenback on Friday. The pair finished the week with 0.42% gains.
 
The British pound was sharply lower, with GBP/USD plunging 1.39% on Friday at 1.4258. The major ended the week losing 1.8% amid persistent uncertainty over whether the Brits will remain in the E.U. or not at the referendum scheduled for the 23rd of June.
 
Elsewhere, the commodity currencies were broadly lower, with AUD/USD losing 0.79% at 0.7327, the NZD/USD falling 0.65% to 0.7059 and the USD/CAD rising 0.50% to trade at 1.2785.

In the week ahead, market participants will be closely monitoring Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve for new signs on the future direction of rate hikes, we well as monetary policy meeting in Japan, Switzerland, and the U.K.
 
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13 / 06 / 2016 | Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY: Rebounds from 3-1/2 year lows, trading at 119.50

European Session
The EUR/JPY pair has been trading downwards since the 7th of June 2016, with the bears driving the price from as high as 122.70 to as low as 119.00, as the yen remains underpinned by risk-off sentiment.

The cross consolidated downwards around 120.83 on Friday, ending the day at 120.10. Today, the pair extended its downward trajectory to three-and-a-half year lows of 119.08, but bounced off at the start of the European session, currently trading at 119.50.

Markets remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan interest rate decision due on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

In the event that the pair breaks above 119.87, the price could reach 120.10 and 120.41 respectively.

On the flip side, in the scenario where the price breaks below 119.08, the pair could reach 118.76 and 118.31 in extension.



Please note: The content in this daily technical analysis article should not be taken as investment advice. It comprises our personal view.
 
 
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