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LATEST MARKET NEWS
UK CPI inflation likely to have picked up in June 2018
The most important of the releases is the UK’s CPI inflation data. The CPI is an indicator used to measure the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall, which is the rate of inflation, referred to as the CPI inflation. Analysts are anticipating that the CPI inflation picked up coming in at 2.6%, on an annualised basis. The ONS will also release data regarding the UK’s core CPI inflation in June 2018. Core CPI inflation is inflation excluding the prices of seasonally volatile products such as food and energy. According to analysts’ forecasts, the UK’s core CPI inflation is expected to have increased from 2.1% recorded in May 2018 to 2.2% on a year-to-year basis.
In May 2018, the UK’s CPI inflation had surprised economists by remaining unchanged at 2.4%, on a year-to-year basis, which constitutes a one-year low. The consensus among market experts was that the CPI inflation would increase to 2.5%. Core CPI inflation had also remained flat at 2.1%. The ONS report accompanying the data said that Transport inflation jumped on higher fuels and lubricants costs, while prices rose at a softer pace for recreation & culture, housing & utilities, restaurants & hotels, and food & non-alcoholic beverages.
The Bank of England’s (BoE) board and its Governor Mark Carney would like to see the UK’s CPI inflation rate hovering around 2%. Average earnings, including bonuses, are expected to have increased by 2.5% during May 2018 and, if the inflation forecast is confirmed, the recent pattern of wages rising faster than prices will be reversed.
Eurozone CPI inflation
On July 18th 2018, Eurostat, which is the official statistical office of the European Union (EU), is expected to publish data regarding the Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in June 2018. Economists polled by Bloomberg on July 11th 2018 suggest that the Euro-bloc’s headline inflation rose to 2.0%, on an annualised basis, during June 2018. If the figure is confirmed, it will be the highest since February 2017.
The inflation rate is expected to rise due to increased prices of fuel and food. A flash estimate report released by Eurostat on June 29th 2018 said that “looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in June 2018 (8.0%, compared with 6.1% in May 2018), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.8%, compared with 2.5% in May), services (1.3%, compared with 1.6% in May) and non-energy industrial goods (0.4%, compared with 0.3% in May).”
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