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EUR/USD slides after Italian announcement
Yesterday’s distinctly dovish announcement by Mario Draghi knocked EUR/USD back to the low 1.06’s and notably there has been no attempt at a rebound since the event. The outlook for the Eurozone remains weak, as underlined by the expansion of the scale of the QE program, and the fact that we’ve seen the end-date pushed out to December 2017. It’s really a case of waiting for next week’s FOMC verdict now and although we’re still some considerable way from parity – and that’s before we consider the psychological barrier this will face – if Janet Yellen paints a hawkish picture for 2017 then further losses here should be anticipated.
The release of some upbeat Chinese inflation data overnight appears to have lent support to AUD/USD, with the Aussie dollar continuing to display these proxy qualities. However further gains on the pair are likely to be hampered, both by the recurrent resistance we’ve seen posted by the 0.7500 level and also the reality that there’s a US rate hike coming next week – along with the likelihood of more hawkish news from Washington in the New Year. This possible infrastructure boom in US could lend support in the longer term, but again we need better clarity as to precisely the scale of the activity before thinking too much about the lift this might offer commodity prices – and in turn just how this might translate into benefits for AUD.
USD/CHF jumped higher yesterday off the back of Draghi’s statement, again propelling the pair close to ten-month highs and with the safe haven status of the Franc clearly providing limited appeal right now. Again however next week’s FOMC could be critical for the pair – any hints of uncertainty from Janet Yellen and the quality of the Swiss Franc could shine through.
Oil prices are drifting higher once again amidst hopes that non-Opec member countries will also agree to production cuts at a meeting being held in Vienna over the weekend. We are however still sitting a little way below recent highs for crude and this evening’s Baker Hughes rig count from the US could be telling. If the mere prospect of the Opec cuts is translating into more production coming on stream across the Atlantic, can the coordinated actions of other non-member states really have the impact the market has priced in?
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