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The flash UK GDP reading for Q3 is due to be released this morning at 9.30am BST, so that’s covering the first quarter since the Brexit referendum. Expectations are for a print of 2.1% - something that will likely be cheered by the pro-Brexit camp, although critically we need to bear in mind that fundamentally nothing has changed yet. With the pound struggling to recover from recent lows, even a modestly worse than expected figure would probably have only a limited impact.
US durable goods orders are slated for release at 1.30pm BST and again there’s a real risk of contraction being reported here. That said, what we’ve seen of late has been a steady stream of typically better than expected economic data out of the US, which will be giving the Fed the final bits of confidence that hiking rates now will just take enough heat out of the economy to keep inflation in check. That said, we’ve still got the Presidential election result to contend with and given the dollar’s recent run of strength any shortfall could quickly open up some downside for the greenback.
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